The outlook for Southeast Asia has softened as growth prospects falter in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, first quarter 2014 growth slowed to 5.2% as soft external demand, low commodity prices, and the temporary ban on select mineral exports undermined the recovery of net exports. Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the first quarter as the political deadlock affected domestic demand and tourism. Viet Nam’s growth forecast has been slightly adjusted to account for the effect of tensions with the PRC on economic activities including recent factory riots. The 2014 forecast for the subregion is downgraded by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7%. As the factors slowing growth in 2014 are expected to be temporary, the forecast growth of 5.4% in 2015 has been maintained. MANILA, PHILIPPINES – Developing Asia remains on track toward steady growth in 2014 despite slower-than-expected growth in the United States (US) in the first quarter, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement, released today, maintains ADB’s April forecast of 6.2% growth in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015 for the region’s 45 developing economies.
“Developing Asia as a region continues to perform well,” said ADB Deputy Chief Economist Juzhong Zhuang. “The pace of the growth moderation in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is in line with our expectations while the stage is set for India to pursue reform that could unlock its growth potential.”
The major industrial economies are anticipated to expand by 1.5% this year, a downward revision from the 1.9% forecast in April’s ADO 2014. Softer US growth has been somewhat offset by Japan’s robust first quarter performance while the euro area has generally met expectations.
In East Asia, quarterly growth in the PRC met ADB expectations with steady consumer demand, targeted government measures to stabilize investment, and a pickup in external demand in the second quarter of 2014. Both retail sales and industrial production have been picking up pace. Overall, the PRC is on track to meet ADO 2014 forecasts of 7.5% growth in 2014 and 7.4% in 2015.
Improving prospects in India have buoyed South Asia’s growth outlook somewhat. The new government—the first to hold a single-party majority in the lower house since 1984—outlined a 10-point plan to revive the Indian economy prioritizing infrastructure and investment reforms, faster resolution of inter-ministerial issues, efficient policy execution, and policy stability. While detail on the structural reforms remains limited, it is expected that greater political certainty will support a pickup in infrastructure investment.
ADB maintains its growth forecast at 5.5% for fiscal year (FY) 2014 but upgrades its FY2015 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 6.3% as anticipated reform bears fruit. The Asian Development Outlook is ADB’s main economic forecasting product. It is published each April with an update published in September and brief supplements published in July and December. All materials are available at www.adb.org/data/publications/main.
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Press release: ADB Maintains Developing Asia Growth Forecast, Jul 18, 2014
Posted: Jul 20, 2014