The most authoritative study was done by Professor Peter Petri of Brandeis University and the Peterson Institute. The study will be updated as soon as the TPP has been finalised and made public, so that the exact terms will be known. Click the below links for details.
Vietnam’s Exports will increase by 28.4% with TPP
The TPP would increase Vietnam’s exports from the expected “baseline” in 2025 without TPP of $239.0 billion (of which apparel and footwear exports would total $113 billion) by $67.9 billion to $307 billion (of which apparel and footwear exports would increase by $51.9 billion to $165 billion). In percentage terms, total exports would increase by 28.4% over the baseline, and apparel and footwear exports would increase by 45.9% over the baseline. Total Net Exports increase: 67.9 / 239.0 = 28.4%;
Manuractures exports Increase (see next slide) 71.5 / 207.4 = 34%
Vietnam’s GDP will increase by 10.5% with TPP
In addition, the expected GDP growth benefits are substantial, Vietnam’s GDP in 2025 with TPP, would be 10.5% higher than the baseline estimate. This is particularly important now that Vietnam is in a “structural growth decline” period, according to the World Bank. Those are economic projections that give a general idea.
More FDI will come with TPP
Already, more than US$3 billion of new FDI in Vietnam has been announced in 2013-2015 by companies from S Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, and Australia to develop the textiles, apparel, and footwear supporting industries so that exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and other TPP countries will benefit from duty-free rates.
see especially slides 13 and 17 of Petri’s presentation with VCCI WTO Center on Mar 28, 2013